The generation of today has not been a great one for the Xbox One. It had waged a battle against Sony’s PlayStation 4 and lost. Microsoft’s console is now facing a war due to Nintendo Switch. With PS4’s dominance and Switch’s popularity, the Xbox One is may lose the #2 position. If things do continue along the current ways, the Xbox One will be in third place.
Considering the evidence available, it is the logical outcome, and anything can happen now, but there is no situation where Xbox One can manage to get ahead.
Thanks to an event which focused on media, a draconian DRM policy, and a $500 price, Xbox One has failed miserably to meet the success of the predecessor, the Xbox 360. Things had improved for Xbox One when Microsoft dropped its Kinect peripheral, DRM and lowered its price. Ths was not enough for Xbox One to close the gap. It has not been able to overcome the blunders.
It had been reported that Xbox One sold 35 million systems worldwide and unlike Sony or Nintendo, Microsoft does not disclose its exact sales numbers for the console. While 35 million is huge number, it is not a big figure As compared to PlayStation 4’s 76 million. Sony sells two PS4s for every Xbox One. This 2-to-1 gap was consistent throughout the generation, and it is getting wider.
Nintendo’s Switch sold 14 million units in less than one year. If Switch keeps selling like this, it may move 25 million units by 2018. New installments of Pokemon and Metroid and Super Smash Bros. will send the units flying from store shelves. It is very easy to see Switch selling 40, 45 and even 50 million units by 2019. It is also possible that the projections are conservative.
We must keep in mind that Switch is the newer console and it does not have the horsepower of PS4 and Xbox One. The switch has a lot of good years ahead of it. As amazing as 2017 was for Switch, it has yet to truly hit its stride. Like I said, even stating the system will sell 50 million by next year is playing it safe. Unless Nintendo runs into manufacturing problems like last year, there’s nothing stopping the momentum of the console. It’s off to a nice sprint now, but expect it to transition to a full gallop sooner rather than later.
Nintendo Switch – Skyrim
Projecting Xbox One’s numbers is much trickier as we know it sold 35 million units after November 2013 and if we do round this number to 36 million, this is nine million consoles sold per year. Xbox One might sell nine million in 2018, and this will bring the figure to 45 million. Console exclusives like Sea of Thieves, State of Decay 2, Crackdown 3, and Forza may help in bolstering the number in 2018.
Based on the rumors, Sony may launch the PlayStation 5 in 2019, and this may signal the official start of the 9th generation of consoles. It does not mean the end of the eight as well. Microsoft and Sony had continued to produce PS3 and Xbox 360 into this generation.
The analysis from IHS Markit is predicting that consumers will spend much more on Nintendo services than Microsoft and consumers spent $10 billion on Xbox services in 2018. They had spent $8 billion on Nintendo, and the sales include Switch, 3DS, and SNES Classic Edition, games. IHS Markit has predicted that spending on Nintendo and services will be more than $11 billion this year and the spending on Xbox’s will fall to $9 billion. The analysts hare believing that the Switch will detract the consumers from spending on PS4 and Xbox One as those are nearing the end.
It is pretty hard to see Xbox One beating Switch or PS4 in the next few years. The PS4 is the name that most think of when it comes to gaming. The #1 place is all but secure after the PlayStation 5 gets announced.
The switch might not catch up to PS4, which will sell more than 100 million by the generation’s end and it may pull off an upset and arrive in first place. Microsoft has Xbox One X, but by the time PlayStation 5 releases, the system’s power advantage will evaporate. Though Xbox One will not “win” the generation, it is not a failure of a system. It pleases the core audience, and those who play on Xbox One has access to most of the games on PS4, Exclusives like Ori and the Blind Forest, Gears of War 4, Sunset Overdrive, Forza Horizon 3 and Halo 5, are available.
Xbox One lost the generation, but there is hope for the brand for the next generation. With PS5 releasing maybe in 2019, we can assume that Xbox Two will not be far behind. Microsoft will correct their mistakes made in Xbox One and build a system which is focused on gaming.